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Japan is on the brink of its first female prime minister, following Sanae Takaichi was elected as leader of the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). This victory sets the stage for her appointment as the country's new leader by mid-month.

A Hawkish Politician Wins

Takaichi, a hawkish politician who has voiced praise for Margaret Thatcher in her quest to build a “strong and prosperous” Japan on the global scene, beat her liberal competitor, Shinjiro Koizumi, in a runoff election at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo recently.

The party vote was triggered by the former prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, leaving office after only one year as leader. Ishiba, a moderate whose rise to power had upset the hawkish element of his party, stated it was time to find a successor to lead a “revitalized party”.

Taking Over a Struggling Party

Takaichi, sixty-four, takes charge of a party that has endured two damaging elections in the past year as voters withdrew support over a financial controversy and its neglect of the inflationary pressures.

“Lately, I have heard strong feedback from across the country saying we don’t know what the LDP believes in any more,” Takaichi said moments before the second round. “That pressing concern motivated me. I wanted to turn people’s worries about their daily lives and the future into optimism.”

Election Breakdown

Predictably, Takaichi won the first round, obtaining 183 of 589 votes, with Koizumi in close behind with 164 votes. Three other candidates were knocked out from the contest. The final vote, in which MPs’ votes were given higher value than those of grassroots supporters, was expected to help Koizumi, who was said to be more popular among lawmakers. But it was Takaichi who emerged the winner after the final ballot.

Path to Premiership

Even though the LDP-led coalition no longer holds a majority of seats in parliament, Takaichi is broadly anticipated to be approved as prime minister when MPs vote by mid-month.

To prevent her from obtaining the prime ministership, opposition parties would have to rally around their own candidate – a scenario analysts concur is virtually impossible.

Pressing Issues

Her primary challenge will be to bring together the LDP and win back public support after a prolonged period of controversy and poor election results.

She will also have to confront public concern over migration and overtourism, and try to gain the support of younger voters who turned to fringe groups such as Sanseito in this summer’s legislative ballot. Japan should “review policies that allow in people with vastly distinct cultures and backgrounds”, Takaichi said while campaigning.

Meaning and Policies

It is hard to overstate the significance of Takaichi’s victory in a country that has scarce female representation and business leaders, and consistently ranks poorly in global parity comparisons. She has, though, opposed policies that many voters believe would advance the cause of gender equality, such as permitting women to become empresses regnant and married couples to use different last names.

Wider Implications

The leadership ballot had been described by analysts as a struggle over direction of the LDP, which has governed Japan almost uninterrupted for the past seven decades. Its ruling position has been badly shaken, however, by a enduring impropriety involving dozens of MPs who were found to have diverted unreported profits from the sale of tickets to party gatherings into secret accounts.

Takaichi, a security hardliner, will also face a volatile security environment in east Asia, including the rise of a informal coalition against the West comprising China, Russia and North Korea, and the redrawing of economic ties with the US under Donald Trump, who will allegedly travel to the country towards the end of the month.

Ballot System

Each of the LDP’s 295 lawmakers participated in the ballot in the first round of Saturday’s vote, with an equal number of votes allocated based on the preferences of just over 1 million grassroots members who had already cast their votes.

After no aspirant secured an clear win in the first round, Takaichi and Koizumi faced off, with each of the LDP’s 295 lawmakers having a single ballot and the membership’s share dropping to 47 votes, one for each of Japan’s prefectures.