A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
